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Apr 17, 2012
04/12
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remember the american jobs act that was proposed by president obama last fall. that package enjoyed 63% support among the american public. that was apparently enough to render it dead on arrival in washington. last time when talking about oil subsidies, i described it as caper because this phenomenon is if you take a step back and think about it, somewhat mysterious. our basic understanding of the way self-government works is that public opinion, the majority of public opinion, is essentially supposed to be transferred into legislative outcomes. this is not a perfect one to one process. we're not athens. member we don't have plebiscites. we have representative democracy. there's a bunch of complicated bets and whistles and checks and balances in ways the process can be gained. the basic idea in order for democracy to be functioning and credible, there's got to be some rough correlation between what the majority in the country wants and what their government actually does. at the risk of sounding hyperbolic, it's a little unclear whether that sort of correlation
remember the american jobs act that was proposed by president obama last fall. that package enjoyed 63% support among the american public. that was apparently enough to render it dead on arrival in washington. last time when talking about oil subsidies, i described it as caper because this phenomenon is if you take a step back and think about it, somewhat mysterious. our basic understanding of the way self-government works is that public opinion, the majority of public opinion, is essentially...
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Sep 22, 2012
09/12
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as voters get holder, obama does worse. obama is winning overall in each of these polls but his support is totally dependent on specific age groups. up see the exact same pattern in the data from fox news's latest polling. yeah, fox news. mr. romney is winning with older voters. so if you are a political technician and trying to win the state of florida for your candidate, this polling pattern is not just an interesting fact about how this state is likely to vote. what you are looking at right there is actionable intelligence. what political messaging is going to be most effective for winning this state given these age-specific numbers. again, you do not have to guess. it's an empirical question with an empirical answer. it is in the numbers. look from that same fox news poll. regardless of how you might vote, which presidential candidate do you prust to do a better job on protecting medicare? look at the margin. president obama winning that question in florida by a 13-point margin. so the people who want barack obama to wi
as voters get holder, obama does worse. obama is winning overall in each of these polls but his support is totally dependent on specific age groups. up see the exact same pattern in the data from fox news's latest polling. yeah, fox news. mr. romney is winning with older voters. so if you are a political technician and trying to win the state of florida for your candidate, this polling pattern is not just an interesting fact about how this state is likely to vote. what you are looking at right...
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Mar 22, 2012
03/12
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romney, you said president obama cut medicare benefits. that's a lie. you said the administration raised corporate tax rates. that's a lie. you said president obama has not signed any trade deals, which would be news to officials in south korea and colombia and panama, with whom the president has signed trade deals. you said americans are the only people on earth who put our hand over our heart during the playing of the national anthem. that is not only a lie, it's absurd, and it's weird you would even say it. what do you do with a candidate for president who lice about even the stupid stuff? >> i can't trust him to tell the truth about what he advocates. >> you said of mitt romney, somebody who will lie to you to get to be president will lie to you when they are president. i have to ask you, are you calling mitt romney a liar? >> yes. >> you're calling mitt romney a liar? >> well, you seem shocked by it, yes. >> if a man's dishonest to obtain a job, he'll be dishonest on the job. >> it is one thing to look at a candidate's rivals and say, oh, they're c
romney, you said president obama cut medicare benefits. that's a lie. you said the administration raised corporate tax rates. that's a lie. you said president obama has not signed any trade deals, which would be news to officials in south korea and colombia and panama, with whom the president has signed trade deals. you said americans are the only people on earth who put our hand over our heart during the playing of the national anthem. that is not only a lie, it's absurd, and it's weird you...
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Oct 13, 2012
10/12
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look, last week, even during the presidential debate between president obama and mitt romney, the obama campaign tried to push on twitter the idea that mitt romney was being inappropriately testy. they tried so hard to push the testy mitt idea. they tried so hard to make that into a thing that people should feel about that debate. >> he got testy about it. he got testy about being on defense. i think that came across to the american people. >> a testy governor romney who spent the entire time on defense. >> i think for some folks at home it probably came across a little testy. >> yeah, no. nice try. i mean, maybe mitt romney was testy, at the presidential debate, and maybe joe biden did laugh in paul ryan's face all night at the vice presidential debate. but that is in part because these guys, mitt romney and joe biden, were pumped and they were pumped because they were obviously winning their debates. and complaining about that does not change that. but the other person who was pumped last night and whose performance was both winning and, therefore, grating to the side who came out the
look, last week, even during the presidential debate between president obama and mitt romney, the obama campaign tried to push on twitter the idea that mitt romney was being inappropriately testy. they tried so hard to push the testy mitt idea. they tried so hard to make that into a thing that people should feel about that debate. >> he got testy about it. he got testy about being on defense. i think that came across to the american people. >> a testy governor romney who spent the...
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Oct 26, 2012
10/12
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obama for america. ohio. the obama campaign has been working in ohio all along, organizing these campaigns, working these interregnum elections in ohio. rather than risk losing another referendum by 20-some-odd points ohio republicans caved. when they saw the truck roll up with those petitions, they just caved. they decided to repeal their own law, themselves. they repealed their own law that would have cut early voting in half. they did try to cut early voting by other means later on, but not in half. and not the way that law would have had them cut it had they not caved. they caved on that. they had to. ohio republicans charged into power after 2010 with their big ambitious agenda and just got whopped or chomped i should say. listen to governor kasich describe the experience here. this is from january right after the union rights vote. >> and the one thing you have to do is if you're going to bring about massive change that's going to cause great unrest, i mean, i've learned this, you've got to prepare ahea
obama for america. ohio. the obama campaign has been working in ohio all along, organizing these campaigns, working these interregnum elections in ohio. rather than risk losing another referendum by 20-some-odd points ohio republicans caved. when they saw the truck roll up with those petitions, they just caved. they decided to repeal their own law, themselves. they repealed their own law that would have cut early voting in half. they did try to cut early voting by other means later on, but not...
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Aug 11, 2012
08/12
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it's the pro obama super pac priorities usa. it's not just the romney campaign outraising the obama campaign. the super pac on the right is swamping the amount of super pac money on the left. when we looked at it on the show a month ago, republican versus democratic super pac money looked sort of like this. that was the ratio in terms of the money on both sides. my hunch is that it's gotten worse since we looked at it last month. but priorities usa, the pro obama super pac are a big fish in the big money pond, but this week, they were nevertheless the small fish that ate everything else in the pond. their ad showing a laid off steel worker from a plant shut down by bain capital not only dominated the political discussion, but it earned a right-wing freak-out reaction. the romney campaign's seething political press with multiple stories about how upset they were about the ad and how horrible it was. the spokesperson outdoing his own typical hyperbole telling reporters specifically about the ad, i don't think a world champion limb
it's the pro obama super pac priorities usa. it's not just the romney campaign outraising the obama campaign. the super pac on the right is swamping the amount of super pac money on the left. when we looked at it on the show a month ago, republican versus democratic super pac money looked sort of like this. that was the ratio in terms of the money on both sides. my hunch is that it's gotten worse since we looked at it last month. but priorities usa, the pro obama super pac are a big fish in the...
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Sep 29, 2012
09/12
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president obama up by 18. a new suffolk university poll out this week asked about the forced ultrasound law passed by republicans in the legislature in virginia this year, signed into law by the republican governor in the state, bob mcdonald. virginia voters opposed that law by 17 points. the anti-abortion crusade that has been undertaken this year by republican-led state government in virginia is not popular in virginia. and now virginia women are prepared to take it out on the presidency, right? they're planning to vote against the republicans' candidate for president in their state by 18 points. and that was the context for a really important move made by virginia's republican attorney general this week, a move that could be important for the presidential race in virginia. this week the attorney general certified a new set of regulations targeted only at abortion clinics in the united states. the rules are just targeting abortion providers. it red tape specifically designed is to make it economically imposs
president obama up by 18. a new suffolk university poll out this week asked about the forced ultrasound law passed by republicans in the legislature in virginia this year, signed into law by the republican governor in the state, bob mcdonald. virginia voters opposed that law by 17 points. the anti-abortion crusade that has been undertaken this year by republican-led state government in virginia is not popular in virginia. and now virginia women are prepared to take it out on the presidency,...
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Aug 25, 2012
08/12
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he works for a living as a barack obama impersonator. he said he will perform at a 30-person party for $300 plus travel. he will work a trade show for $800 plus travel. last week, he posted a picture of him with, i think, the real donald trump. it reads, be sure to watch the republican national convention. the picture was picked up, and i think this screen grab on the screen might be the only copy of it still around. right around the time of the photo, donald trump was teasing the public with what kind of role he might play at the republican convention next week. >> i'm doing something. i have been asking to speak, but i am doing something that is going to be, i think, really amazing. it's going to be great, and we'll see what happens, how it is received, but it will be pretty wild. i think it will be potent. we'll see. >> they have asked you to speak at the convention? >> yes, they have asked me to speak. i may do it, but i don't think you can do both. you'll understand when you see what i'm doing. >> oh, okay. >> oh, okay. the smart ki
he works for a living as a barack obama impersonator. he said he will perform at a 30-person party for $300 plus travel. he will work a trade show for $800 plus travel. last week, he posted a picture of him with, i think, the real donald trump. it reads, be sure to watch the republican national convention. the picture was picked up, and i think this screen grab on the screen might be the only copy of it still around. right around the time of the photo, donald trump was teasing the public with...
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218
Jul 14, 2012
07/12
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have you been in contact with the obama campaign. are they interested in what you know or following your lead from what you raised with him a decade ago? >> i certainly think a lot of record created in 2002 the obama people are looking at. i guess you've had the videotape of one of our earlier debates from 2002. i really think that after ten years, it's really making sure that you hold someone accountable for the statements that they make. you know, former governor romney has demonstrated a pattern of not being completely transparent about his financial dealings. on the one hand he says that the reason he should be the president of the united states is because he's a job creator and the reason we should believe he is a job creator because of his fantastic track record at bain. then when pressed about bankruptcies and lost jobs, he doesn't want anything to do with that. i think we were able to uncover that in 2002 and it's just looking at the inconsistencies, not only in 2002, but you know, in his last race and in this race, just maki
have you been in contact with the obama campaign. are they interested in what you know or following your lead from what you raised with him a decade ago? >> i certainly think a lot of record created in 2002 the obama people are looking at. i guess you've had the videotape of one of our earlier debates from 2002. i really think that after ten years, it's really making sure that you hold someone accountable for the statements that they make. you know, former governor romney has demonstrated...
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Jan 19, 2012
01/12
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they have someone that looks just like me saying that president obama should say okay to the keystone xl pipeline. >> when you are this close to hoover dam, it makes you realize how small a human is and this is a human project. you can't be the state who builts this. you can't even be the town who builds this. but you can be the guy who stops something like this. we've got a project like this waiting for the president's go ahead supported by the republicans and democrats, labor unions. it provides energy security and up to 130,000 jobs. >> national republican congressional committee, you guys nailed me. you got me exactly right.
they have someone that looks just like me saying that president obama should say okay to the keystone xl pipeline. >> when you are this close to hoover dam, it makes you realize how small a human is and this is a human project. you can't be the state who builts this. you can't even be the town who builds this. but you can be the guy who stops something like this. we've got a project like this waiting for the president's go ahead supported by the republicans and democrats, labor unions. it...
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Feb 9, 2012
02/12
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they are less likely to vote for mitt romney because of his opposition to what the obama administration is doing to cover contraceptions, less likely, 40% less likely, 23% more likely. when you ask just catholic voters, the split is worse. all voters split on that question against romney by 17%, catholic voters split against him on 18%. people are less likely to vote for somebody who is against the obama administration's position that health should cover contraception. it's by a lot. taken away from mitt romney specifically, ask generically about republicans in congress who want to do away with birth control health insurance benefit, do you support or oppose them on the issue, the answer is oppose them. look at that. 58 to 33. a 25 point margin. the old boys club that dictates beltway common wisdom has never been more unified at waging their fingers at the obama administration what a misstep it is to have health insurance cover contraception. to do what 28 states already do in a variety of ways to give exemptions for churches but say that anybody else who provides health insurance has t
they are less likely to vote for mitt romney because of his opposition to what the obama administration is doing to cover contraceptions, less likely, 40% less likely, 23% more likely. when you ask just catholic voters, the split is worse. all voters split on that question against romney by 17%, catholic voters split against him on 18%. people are less likely to vote for somebody who is against the obama administration's position that health should cover contraception. it's by a lot. taken away...
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Feb 18, 2012
02/12
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rick santorum has the badge of honor of being a possible target of the obama campaign. so far the obama campaign has exclusively trained their fire on mitt romney alone but they are starting to size up rick santorum as well. they never did that for newt. you look at the numbers, newt gingrich is back down in the dumps. managed to pull off the remarkable polling feat -- he's the one in green there -- of having a double hump, forgive the phrase. he came out of no where and sunch -- surged heading into iowa, fell off a cliff. surged again coming out of south carolina and now back down off the cliff again down in ron paul territory. so, newt gingrich gave it a good run. newt gingrich billionaire benefactor is contemplating digging in his pockets for another $10 million for newt! happy days are here again! that news, that $10 million for newt news is the best possible news for mitt romney. because mitt romney is the person who benefits the most here. mitt romney is in a fight for his life in of all places his home state of michigan. mr. romney's campaign is in such trouble r
rick santorum has the badge of honor of being a possible target of the obama campaign. so far the obama campaign has exclusively trained their fire on mitt romney alone but they are starting to size up rick santorum as well. they never did that for newt. you look at the numbers, newt gingrich is back down in the dumps. managed to pull off the remarkable polling feat -- he's the one in green there -- of having a double hump, forgive the phrase. he came out of no where and sunch -- surged heading...
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Sep 29, 2012
09/12
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now gallup shows president obama up by six. even really quite ostentatiously republican leaning rasmussen poll gives president obama a one-point advantage nationally. basically across the board in the polls that matter, in the states that matter, the obama campaign is ahead. things could change. we've got the debate starting next week. it's a long way to go, it's politics. anything could happen. right now the obama campaign is solidly and consistently ahead. tactically what that means is the obama campaign has to convert being ahead in people's preferences to actual votes. since they are clearly ahead a good time to get those votes cast is right now. because thanks to early voting people are casting ballots right now. so this lead that they would in the polls can be turned into actual votes while they're still ahead even if they don't end up being this far ahead by election day. iowa became the first swing state in the nation where voters are actually voting early in person. iowa has these really interesting rules where if you
now gallup shows president obama up by six. even really quite ostentatiously republican leaning rasmussen poll gives president obama a one-point advantage nationally. basically across the board in the polls that matter, in the states that matter, the obama campaign is ahead. things could change. we've got the debate starting next week. it's a long way to go, it's politics. anything could happen. right now the obama campaign is solidly and consistently ahead. tactically what that means is the...
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Sep 29, 2012
09/12
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obama up by four in michigan. which is a lot less than the 12-point and 14-point leads the president has also had in michigan polls there this month. but for what it's worth, i should also tell you we have national polls. for the national polls mitt romney supporters it's time for the finger vision. president obama up by five points. that's the fox news poll. the gallup dayly tracking poll had been quite close recently. now gallup shows president obama up by six. even really quite ostentatiously republican leaning rasmussen poll gives president obama a one-point advantage nationally. basically across the board in the polls that matter, in the states that matter, the obama campaign is ahead. things could change. we've got the debate starting next week. it's a long way to go, it's politics. anything could happen. right now the obama campaign is solidly and consistently ahead. tactically what that means is the obama campaign has to convert being ahead in people's preferences to actual votes. since they are clearly ah
obama up by four in michigan. which is a lot less than the 12-point and 14-point leads the president has also had in michigan polls there this month. but for what it's worth, i should also tell you we have national polls. for the national polls mitt romney supporters it's time for the finger vision. president obama up by five points. that's the fox news poll. the gallup dayly tracking poll had been quite close recently. now gallup shows president obama up by six. even really quite...
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Jul 25, 2012
07/12
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obama looks much, much better. see what happens if you give him a six-month grace period, voila, nearly 3 million jobs created since then and more than 3 million in the private sector. so take mr. romney up on his the "or year" part o on six months or a year, and the president's case for re-election looks pretty sturdy. now it's more than 4 million private sector jobs created, which is not bad at all, in fact, it's close to spectacular, fairly rare job growth. in a fact-based world, both presidential campaigns would agree that during the period when president obama -- when the president's policies were in effect, there was significant job growth. maybe you want it faster or slower, but it was there. and there would be more arguments about what could be done to make those numbers even better, and then the american people would vote on the choice before them. i recommend that you stay tuned for more arguments that the stimulus the didn't work, that president obama's been a job destroyer, and other arguments based --
obama looks much, much better. see what happens if you give him a six-month grace period, voila, nearly 3 million jobs created since then and more than 3 million in the private sector. so take mr. romney up on his the "or year" part o on six months or a year, and the president's case for re-election looks pretty sturdy. now it's more than 4 million private sector jobs created, which is not bad at all, in fact, it's close to spectacular, fairly rare job growth. in a fact-based world,...